Sometimes it is very easy to get whirlwinded up in capital markets, believing we are at an absolute tipping point, an extremity of extremities, a turn signal the likes of which we have never seen before, only for prices to continue on and on. And on. Markets, like humans, are not dictated wholly by logic, and we need to remember: they too provide tales of the unexpected.

So despite the utter brilliance of the turbulence they provide, sometimes we need - and wish - for an anti-outlier: an expected outcome. So it is with that in mind, I present three such hopes:

Money appears to be leaving Treasuries, energies and metals… where does the money go?

Crude traded above but failed to settle above the downsloping trend line mentioned in yesterday’s post. Coincidence or not, today’s high also come in around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. We’re suggesting light long exposure looking for prices to inch higher in the coming weeks. Like a coiled spring for the last 11 sessions natural gas has been in a 25 cent trading range. We’re suggesting buying November futures and November call spreads. Do not buy a big position but rather add to your position if and when the market proves you right.

Looked at in isolation, “steep decline” always sounds bad. How can US NG production be meaningfully boosted by new shale gas resources, if those individual wells shoot off like bottle rockets only to decline very steeply? In a back and forth conversation over this issue with Paul Kedrosky, he offered up the following remark: